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In this year’s World Energy Outlook (WEO), the International Energy Agency (IEA) stresses the need for a global energy transition. It says that the emissions reductions already agreed by the international community can slow the rise in global emissions, but a far-reaching change in the energy sector will be needed to attain the target of restricting global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius as set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.

“Government policies will determine where we go from here,” said Fatih Birol.

The WEO, which is published annually, is widely regarded as the most important publication on the development of global energy supply. In this year’s WEO, the IEA examined the impact that the climate pledges made by 190 countries will have on the global energy sector until 2040. According to the WEO, global energy demand will rise by 30 per cent by 2040. “We see clear winners for the next 25 years – natural gas but especially wind and solar – replacing the champion of the previous 25 years, coal,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director. “But there is no single story about the future of global energy: in practice, government policies will determine where we go from here.”

The German government is pursuing a clear strategy in the German energy transition, which is driven by an expansion of renewable energy and improved energy efficiency. The IEA considers these two elements also to be at the heart of the global energy transition.

The challenge is integrating renewable energies into the grid

The IEA stresses the point that global renewables-based electricity generation capacity grew more quickly in 2015 than all the other types of electricity generation capacity together. It also believes that the costs of renewables will continue to drop substantially in the coming years. According to Fatih Birol, the bulk of renewables will be “competitive without any subsidies” by 2040. This means that adjusting the structures and the functioning of the electricity market will be key in order to continue to successfully expand renewables. One area where the IEA sees major potential for this is electric mobility.

On 30 November, Fatih Birol presented the WEO in Berlin, at an event organised by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (as the main host). State Secretary Rainer Baake opened the event.